Bobgram 14 Dec

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 14 December 2025
Global temperatures in 2025 are on track to make the year the second hottest
on record, tying with 2023 and just behind 2024, according to Europe's
Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The global mean temperature so far is 2.66 degrees Fahrenheit (1.48 C)
above the preindustrial baseline, bringing the three-year average close to
the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold set in the Paris Agreement. Scientists warn
that the extreme heat is fuelling stronger storms, wildfires and deadly heat
waves across the world, and say unbridled carbon emissions threaten to push
warming above the Paris agreement level by 2029.
From atmosphere.copernicus.eu

TROPICS

Survivors of catastrophic flooding and mudslides triggered by late-November
cyclones in Sri Lanka and Indonesia are now facing mounting hardships and
hunger. At least 627 people perished in Sri Lanka from Cyclone Ditwah, while
there were as many as 2,000 victims from Cyclone Senyar across Indonesia,
Malaysia and Thailand.
AT present Cyclone BAKUNG is southwest of Jakarta and expected to travel off
to the southwest
A positive phase of the MJO is starting to travel eastwards into the Pacific
and should reach Fiji around 17 December.
WEATHER ZONES

Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows well defined SPCZ across
the whole south Pacific. A tropical low is tonight called 94P over northern
Vanuatu and by local Tuesday expected to be crossing Fiji then going further
east-southeast and weakening. Avoid.

Wind accumulation from windy.com above shows not much wind associated with
the tropical low now near Vanuatu. The main windy areas this week are in
the Tasman Sea with passing fronts and well east of New Zealand associated
with a passing Low.

HIGHS and LOWS
Tropical Low L1 / 94P tonight over northern Vanuatu is expected to go
east-southeast passing Fiji by local Tuesday then going further east and
fading away.
HIGH H1 is well east of New Zealand is expected to travel off further to the
east along 40south.
Front associated with Low L2 is expected to cross South Island on Monday and
rest of country by Tuesday night followed by a southwest flow. The next
front is likely early next week, but models are differing about on this.
HIGH H2 is tonight in the Aussie Bight and by Wednesday is expected to be in
the central Tasman Sea, then travelling northeast to be north of New Zealand
by Friday.
Low L3 over western Australia by Tuesday is expected to reach New South
Wales by Saturday.
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